Developing estimates of future economic variables is a core actuarial skill, which normally combines data analysis with professional judgment. A technique known as the Real Time Delphi method is another means by which to accomplish this, leveraging the judgment of experts to arrive at a consensus forecast. A recent joint study with the Society of Actuaries applied this process to four key economic variables. Max Rudolph, FSA, MAAA, CERA and Steve Easson, FCIA, FSA and CFA join us to take us through the details of this research project.
