Despite our ability to adapt and science’s best efforts to keep up, unpredictable variables have made forecasting the pandemic’s future outcomes a challenge. To understand the COVID-19 pandemic in the face of uncertain factors, the CIA put together a Pandemic Modelling Project Team to analyze scenarios for Ontario where key assumptions are varied, and to present outcomes of the pandemic in the...
Funding approaches continue to be a topic of interest in the Canadian pension world, with provincial regulators examining different methodologies. In this episode, George Ma, FCIA, discusses his research paper that presents a model to assess the impact of these varying approaches.
As the Actuaries Climate Index and other climate-related measurements continue to tick upwards, the question is what do we do with these data? Are Canada and the provinces putting enough effort towards adapting our infrastructure to the potential consequences of climate change? How can Canadian actuaries get more involved in climate-related risk management and apply their expertise to the...
Pension stakeholders, including the CIA, have had concerns about the lack of harmonized regulatory processes across Canada for many years. Canada has moved to a new funding regime for defined benefit (DB) pension plans aimed at strengthening the going concern funding requirement through the addition of a funding margin, known as the provision for adverse deviations, or PfAD. Jurisdictions across...
Developing estimates of future economic variables is a core actuarial skill, which normally combines data analysis with professional judgment. A technique known as the Real Time Delphi method is another means by which to accomplish this, leveraging the judgment of experts to arrive at a consensus forecast. A recent joint study with the Society of Actuaries applied this process to four key...
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